The Future Of U.s. Politics In An Age Of Economic Limits by Bruce Shefrin

Author:Bruce Shefrin [Shefrin, Bruce]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Social Science, Future Studies
ISBN: 9780891587705
Google: MHiuAAAAIAAJ
Publisher: Avalon Publishing
Published: 1980-04-02T03:48:32+00:00

The Political Variable

An analysis of the probable response of our society to environmental deterioration must include an awareness of the politics of policymaking. This is an inseparable element of the pollution prognosis. The decision of choosing between preserving environmental quality and promoting economic growth is obviously and unavoidably political. That is, factors of power and self-interest will enter into the process, competing with (and perhaps dominating) impartial analysis, the weight of scientific evidence, and the public interest. My strong suspicion is that, given the current milieu regarding growth and the context within which such decisions are made, there will be a gap between what economists say could be done and what in fact will be done. This is the crux of E. J. Mishan's observation:

In debating the foreseeable future, it is not the potential ideal that economists believe they could realize, not the brave words of government officials or corporate executives, that are agenda, but the political likelihood of significant reductions being made over the next two decades in each of the familiar forms of pollution.40

Our politically determined policy response will also reflect developments in other areas. In a continuing energy emergency, for example, we may be forced to return to more economical and available types of fossil fuels (high-sulphur oil, coal), with negative impacts on air quality. The argument that we must give up an increment of environmental amenity in order to attain a higher living standard (the trade-off between pollution and growth) will remain persuasive within a supportive political context and a pro-growth atmosphere. In short, our optimism should be tempered. What can realistically be expected from efforts to control pollution?

Barry Commoner has argued that there is a strong connection between the profitability of an industry and the application of a mode of technology that uses up environmental resources: "a high rate of profit is associated with practices that are particularly stressful toward the environment and that when these practices are restricted, profits decline."41 Technology has been directed toward increasing this process because, from an economic standpoint, any substitution of a free for a costly good will be a savings. Commoner estimates that since 1946 the technological factor—that is, the increment of added pollution per unit produced due to new productive processes—accounts for up to 95 percent of the aggregate output of contaminants in some industries.42 We have been producing basic necessities at comparable per capita rates but with a more wasteful and hazardous technology (e.g., synthetics versus wool and cotton, detergent versus soap, fertilizer versus more land—harvested acreage has decreased—synthetic herbicides and pesticides versus more natural biological methods, truck versus rail haulage).

The profitability of this new technology (aided in large part by its ability to pass on production costs to society in the form of pollution) and the political muscle of the interests that benefit prevent the government from imposing the economists' social costs approach. Its political difficulty was starkly revealed when auto manufacturers said they would be unable to reduce emission standards for 1978 engines as required by law.

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